FTA-BN model of risks causation for FOD intrusion in flight area

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.06.002

Abstract

Abstract: In order to explore safety risks of FOD intrusion in airport flight area, FTA and BN methods were integrated to build a risk causation analysis model. FTA was used to analyze causation structure of FOD intrusion events. BN was applied to express multimodal properties of risks, and FTA structural reasoning and BN bi-directional reasoning function were utilized to analyze, diagnose and evaluate system risk. The results show that position of violation factors is the most critical element from perspective of risk structure while from perspective of system sensitivity, pavement damage and flight flow are the most sensitive factors with probability of two nodes' most dangerous state increasing by 3.57% and 0.43% respectively, which means that FOD intrusion can occur. It is also found that from perspective of system contribution, nodes with violations and lack of skills make the greatest contribution, and when they are in the most dangerous state, probability of FOD intrusion reaches highest, which is 4.18% and 1.50% respectively. Moreover, FOD intrusion probability in sample airfield is 0.13%, and by operators enriching their working experience, it can be effectively reduced.

Key words: airport flight area, foreign object debris (FOD) intrusion, safety risks, fault tree analysis (FTA), Bayesian network (BN)

CLC Number:

X949

PAN Dan, LI Yongzhou, LUO Fan, ZHANG Panke, XIAO Qin. FTA-BN model of risks causation for FOD intrusion in flight area[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(6): 7-13.

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